Market Summary

BTC/USDT is in a bearish trend on the 4h timeframe but is oversold, with key support at 63345 and resistance at 65672. The market is at a critical juncture where a break below support could extend the downtrend, while a hold may lead to a corrective bounce.

Market State

The primary 4h trend is bearish, with price below the EMA20 (66346.47) and negative Ichimoku cloud thickness (-1096.7). Momentum is weak as RSI is at 30.48 (oversold), and ADX shows Minus_DI (34.44) above Plus_DI (9.32), indicating selling pressure. The 1h timeframe confirms this with declining prices and similar bearish signals.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 65672, 66346
• Support: 63345, 62947

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario If price holds above the 62947 support and breaks above the 66346 resistance (EMA20 level), it could trigger a swing reversal targeting 67000 and potentially higher towards 69988. This scenario would require confirmation from momentum indicators, such as RSI rising above 50, MACD turning positive, and increased buying volume (CMF turning positive). Currently, oversold RSI and low MFI (10.98) hint at a possible bounce, but bearish ADX and Ichimoku cloud oppose immediate upside.

Bearish Scenario If price breaks below the 62947 support, the downtrend is likely to continue, targeting the next support at 62304 and possibly 62000. This is supported by bearish indicators: ADX with Minus_DI dominant, negative MACD histogram (-398.34), and selling pressure shown by negative CMF (-0.16). A break below recent swing lows (e.g., 62700) would confirm bearish momentum for multi-day downside.

Current Lean The lean is bearish due to the ADX configuration and price below key EMAs, but the oversold RSI (30.48) and Stoch RSI (K=0, D=16.2) suggest caution. The exact level to shift the lean to bullish is a break above 66346.

Trade Setup

• Direction: Neutral
• Confidence: Medium
• Key Levels: Support at 63345, 62947 | Resistance at 65672, 66346
• Watch: A decisive break below 62947 for short opportunities or above 66346 for long opportunities to establish a clearer directional bias.

Risks

• Invalidation: A break above 66346 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal a potential bounce, requiring adjustment of short positions.