Market Summary

Bearish trend remains intact with strong selling pressure, but extreme oversold conditions on daily and 4h timeframes suggest a potential bounce before further downside. Key resistance at 72500-73500 will be crucial for short entries.

Market State

Macro trend is bearish: lower highs and lower lows on daily, price below all major moving averages, and Ichimoku cloud. Market is in a decline phase with high negative momentum and volume distribution (CMF negative). The daily ADX (27.84) with minus_di (32.06) dominating plus_di (9.92) confirms strong bearish trend.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 72500, 73500, 74500
• Support: 71000, 70000, 68000

Scenarios

Bull Case A sustained bullish reversal would require price to reclaim the 74000-75000 zone, breaking above the daily EMA9 (74102) and the Ichimoku cloud (75672). This would invalidate the current downtrend structure. However, current indicators (MACD, RSI, CMF) do not support such a move. Confirmation needed: a daily close above 74500 with increasing volume.

Bear Case Continued bearish momentum is the base case. A bounce from oversold levels is expected but should be sold into resistance. Sustained breakdown below 71000 would target 70000 and then 68000. The daily RSI at 29.72 and negative histogram support further downside. Confirmation: a daily close below 71000 with strong volume.

Most Likely Path A short-term bounce towards 72500-73500 is likely given oversold readings (4h RSI 21.86, daily Stoch RSI K=0). This bounce will provide an opportunity to short with a favorable risk/reward. The dominant bearish structure from trend and volume groups favors continued decline after the bounce.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry Zone: $73,000–$73,500 (optimal: $73,000, alternative: $73,500)
• Stop Loss: $74,500 — above the recent swing high (May 31, 74275) and the daily EMA20 (75670). Invalidation level.
• Targets: T1: $70,000 | T2: $68,000 | T3: $66,000 (weeks horizon)
• R/R: (73000 - 70000) / (74500 - 73000) = 3000 / 1500 = 2:1
• Confidence: Medium (0.65)

Risks

• Invalidation: A daily close above $74,500 would break the bearish structure and likely reverse the trend.
• Warning: Extreme oversold conditions could lead to a more aggressive bounce than anticipated. Position sizing should account for this volatility.