Market Summary

DOGE/USDT is in a bearish macro trend but showing oversold conditions on daily RSI, with the critical level to watch at 0.0909 support over the coming weeks.

Market State

The daily chart shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend, currently in a decline phase driven by selling pressure as indicated by high minus DI and negative CMF.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.10618, 0.11757
• Support: 0.0909, 0.0879

Scenarios

Bull Case If price holds above the 0.0909 support and breaks above the 0.10618 resistance, it could signal a reversal, targeting 0.11757 and 0.12775 over weeks. This is supported by oversold RSI readings on both daily and 4h timeframes, but contradicted by the bearish EMA alignment and ADX showing bearish dominance with minus DI above plus DI.

Bear Case If price breaks below 0.0879 support, the downtrend is likely to continue, with next targets at 0.08001 and lower. This is supported by the daily ADX minus DI at 41.41 above plus DI at 4.72, price below key EMAs (EMA9 at 0.1240, EMA20 at 0.1322), and negative CMF indicating selling pressure.

Most Likely Path Given the oversold conditions and bearish structure, a bounce towards 0.10618 is possible, but the break above this level is needed to confirm any sustained upside; otherwise, the downtrend remains intact as per daily price action making lower highs.

Trade Setup

• Direction: Neutral
• Confidence: Medium
• Key Levels: Support at 0.0909, 0.0879 | Resistance at 0.10618, 0.11757
• Watch: A break above 0.10618 for long opportunities or below 0.0879 for short opportunities, using the provided entry zones for position building.

Risks

• Invalidation: For long positions, a break below 0.08500 invalidates the bounce thesis; for short positions, a break above 0.11200 suggests stronger upside momentum.
• Warning: High volatility and oversold conditions may lead to sharp reversals, requiring wide stops and careful position sizing.