ETH Medium Term AI Analysis

MARKET STRUCTURE Bearish trend evident on both 4h and 1h timeframes, with prices declining from highs above 3045 to current 2794.48. The 4h ADX (24.08) indicates a weakening trend, while minus DI dominates plus DI, confirming bearish momentum. On the 1h, RSI is oversold at 26.29, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but the primary structure remains down.

SWING SETUP

• Direction: BEARISH for primary swing trades, with cautious LONG potential only for counter-trend bounces.
• Entry Zone for SHORT: 2865-2900 (rally to resistance).
• Entry Zone for LONG: 2754-2780 (bounce from support).
• Ideal Entry: SHORT at 2865, LONG at 2754.
• Setup Type: Trend continuation for SHORT, counter-trend bounce for LONG.
• Confidence: Medium for SHORT, Low for LONG.

POSITION MANAGEMENT

• For SHORT:
  • Stop Loss: 2933 (above key resistance).
  • Target 1: 2754 (conservative, 3-5 days).
  • Target 2: 2700 (extended, 7-10 days).
  • Risk/Reward: ~1:2 based on entry at 2865 and stop at 2933.
• For LONG:
  • Stop Loss: 2700 (below support).
  • Target 1: 2865 (3-5 days).
  • Target 2: 2900 (7-10 days).
  • Risk/Reward: ~1:1.5 based on entry at 2754.

KEY LEVELS & SCENARIOS Resistance Levels (Upper Targets):

• Level 1: 2865 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from recent swing high to low. If price breaks above, bearish setup is invalidated, suggesting a potential bounce to 2900.
• Level 2: 2900 - 0.5 Fibonacci level and psychological resistance. If price reaches here, expect strong selling pressure or consolidation.
• Level 3: 2933 - 0.382 Fibonacci level and near 4h EMA20; break above could signal trend reversal to bullish.

Support Levels (Lower Targets):

• Level 1: 2754 - Recent swing low on 4h. If price holds here, a bounce to 2865 is likely over 3-5 days.
• Level 2: 2700 - Deeper support zone; drop to this level would indicate bearish continuation with targets near 2650.
• Level 3: 2650 - Critical support for extended bearish momentum; break below risks accelerated decline.

DIVERGENCES & PATTERNS No clear RSI or MACD divergences detected on 4h or 1h timeframes; RSI is oversold on 1h but aligns with price decline. Chart shows a descending structure from highs, typical of a downtrend.

INVALIDATION & RISK FACTORS

• Setup Invalidation for SHORT: Price closing above 2933 on 4h timeframe.
• Setup Invalidation for LONG: Price breaking below 2700.
• Warning Signs: High volatility with 24h price change -7.509%, and oversold conditions may trigger sharp rebounds.
• Alternative Scenario: If price stabilizes above 2865, a range-bound movement between 2754 and 2933 could develop, reducing swing opportunities.

SIMPLE SUMMARY

• Overall Outlook: Bearish, with prices in a sustained downtrend and key resistance levels overhead.
• Quick Take: Prioritize short positions on rallies to 2865-2900, while monitoring 2754 support for potential long scalps with tight stops.