Market Summary

ETH/USDT is in a strong bearish macro trend, with daily RSI deeply oversold at 19.41, indicating sustained selling pressure. The key level to watch is the recent low near 1717; a break below could accelerate declines.

Market State

Daily timeframe shows a clear downtrend with lower highs since April 2025. Price is below both EMA9 (1932) and EMA20 (2028), and ADX at 44.1 confirms trend strength. The market is in the decline phase following distribution.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1820, 1852, 1890
• Support: 1717, 1675, 1644

Scenarios

Bull Case A sustained reversal would require price to break above the 1852 resistance and then the Ichimoku cloud (currently near 1978). The oversold RSI could trigger a short-term bounce, but macro structure remains bearish. Confirmation would be a higher low above 1750 followed by a break above 1852. Without this, any rally is a selling opportunity.

Bear Case Continuation of the downtrend is the dominant scenario. Price is making lower lows and lower highs, with strong negative CMF and MACD. A break below 1717 would open the way to 1675 and then 1644 (Supertrend support). All trend and momentum indicators align bearish.

Most Likely Path The bearish structure has stronger support from ADX (44), negative CMF, and bearish EMA alignment. The most likely path is continued decline towards 1717 or lower, with bounces expected to fail at 1820-1850.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry Zone: $1810–$1820 (on a bounce to resistance)
• Stop Loss: $1860 — above the recent 4h high of 1852 and a major resistance level
• Targets: T1: $1717 (multi-week low) | T2: $1644 (Supertrend level)
• R/R: (1820 - 1717) / (1860 - 1820) = 103/40 = 1:2.58
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: A daily close above $1860 would break the bearish structure and suggest a potential trend change.
• Warning: Oversold RSI could lead to a sharp short-term rally, but this does not invalidate the macro downtrend.