Market Summary

ETH/USDT holds a solid bullish trend on the 1h timeframe, but short-term 15m momentum shows a minor pullback with a potential divergence. The key level to watch is the support at 1620.85; a retest could offer a long entry with favorable risk/reward.

Market State

1h trend is clearly bullish: price above all EMAs, Supertrend bullish, MACD histogram positive, and CMF strong. On 15m, price has pulled back from 1636.12 to 1630.07, with RSI cooling from 60.65 to 57.24 and Stoch RSI K dropping to 0, suggesting short-term weakness but not a reversal. Volume is declining on the pullback, indicating a lack of aggressive selling.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1636.12, 1640.00, 1648.70
• Support: 1620.85, 1613.36, 1607.00

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario A retest of the 1620.85 support (15m low) with bullish confirmation (e.g., a higher low on RSI or a volume spike) would provide a long entry. The 1h trend supports a continuation higher, with first target at the recent high of 1636.12, then 1640.00 (1h resistance), and possibly 1648.70 (higher swing high). Indicators favoring: 1h MACD positive, Supertrend bullish, CMF positive. Contradicting: 15m bearish divergence (lower high on RSI) could delay the move.

Bearish Scenario If price breaks below 1620.85 with volume and closes below the 15m EMA9 (1627.92), the short-term trend could weaken. A further breakdown below 1613.36 (1h support) would invalidate the bullish view and open the door to 1607.00. However, this scenario has less weight given the strong 1h trend.

Current Lean The data leans bullish, but the 15m divergence suggests waiting for a pullback to support before entering. The 1620.85 level is the key pivot for a long setup.

Trade Setup

• Direction: LONG
• Entry: $1620.85 (optimal) / $1628.68 (alternative - current price, but lower R:R)
• Stop Loss: $1613.00 — below the 1h support of 1613.36, protecting against trend break.
• Targets: T1: $1636.12 | T2: $1640.00 | T3: $1648.70
• R/R: (1636.12 - 1620.85) / (1620.85 - 1613.00) = 15.27 / 7.85 = 1.94:1
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: A close below 1613.00 invalidates the bullish setup, as it would break the 1h support and signal trend exhaustion.
• Warning: The 15m bearish divergence could cause a deeper pullback to 1613 before a bounce; monitor price action around 1620.85 for volume confirmation.