Market Summary

ETH/USDT is consolidating in a tight range around 1665 with low momentum on both 1h and 4h timeframes. The market lacks a clear directional bias, favoring a neutral stance until a breakout from the 1620-1690 zone occurs.

Market State

Price is trapped between the 4h EMA9 (1664.78) and EMA20 (1661.53), with ADX below 15 on both timeframes, indicating a non-trending, range-bound market. Momentum indicators are neutral (RSI ~50) and volume flows are mixed, offering no strong conviction for a sustained move.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1676, 1690
• Support: 1660, 1640, 1620

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario A decisive breakout above 1676 (recent swing high) followed by a push through 1690 would signal resumption of the recovery from the June 10 low of 1603. Targets would then be 1700 and 1720. This scenario requires a sharp increase in volume (ADX rising above 25) and bullish MACD crossover on 4h. Currently, the weak ADX and flat EMAs do not support this.

Bearish Scenario A breakdown below 1660, and more importantly below 1620 (the June 12 low), would invalidate the recent recovery and open the door to retest the 1603 low. Further downside targets would be 1580 and 1550. Current momentum is too weak to favor this, though the slightly negative 1h CMF (-0.155) hints at selling pressure.

Current Lean Neutral. The 4h Ichimoku cloud is bullish (price above cloud) and Supertrend is bullish, but ADX is extremely low, indicating no trend strength. The 1h momentum is slightly negative. The conflicting signals across timeframes and indicator groups make a directional bias unreliable. A clear break above 1676 or below 1660 would shift the lean.

Trade Setup

• Direction: Neutral
• Confidence: Low
• Key Levels: Support at 1660, 1640, 1620 | Resistance at 1676, 1690
• Watch: A break above 1676 with volume would favor longs; a break below 1660 with volume would favor shorts. Until then, avoid entries.

Risks

• Invalidation: A close below 1620 or above 1690 would establish a clear bias. Failure to break either level keeps the market in limbo.
• Warning: Low liquidity and weak momentum can lead to false breakouts. Waiting for confirmation is prudent.