Market Summary

ETH/USDT is in a clear multi-week downtrend with a bearish bias. The weekly and daily structures continue to make lower highs and lower lows, and the trend is strong (ADX > 25). Oversold conditions on both daily (RSI 34.98) and weekly (RSI 31.22) suggest a potential short-term bounce, but the dominant trend remains bearish. The critical level to watch is the 1505 support; a break below opens the path to 1385.

Market State

The macro trend is bearish: weekly and daily sequences show lower highs and lower lows since the May 2026 highs. Price is in a distribution/decline phase, with selling pressure confirmed by negative CMF and declining OBV. The 4h chart shows a minor rising channel (higher lows from 1552.95), but this is within the larger downtrend and likely a corrective bounce.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1660, 1700, 1779
• Support: 1552, 1505, 1385

Scenarios

Bull Case A sustained bullish reversal would require price to break above the 1779 swing high and close weekly above the 20-week EMA (currently 2122.79), which is far above. The immediate catalyst would be a break above 1660 then 1700, accompanied by expanding volume and positive CMF. Oversold RSI could support a relief rally, but the trend is too strong to flip without a major structural break. Until price reclaims at least 1700, the bearish trend remains intact.

Bear Case Continued downside is the base case. The weekly ADX (25.08) and strong negative Ichimoku clouds confirm the trend. Price is below all key EMAs on daily and weekly, and the weekly MACD histogram is still negative despite a slight flattening. A break below the 1552 support would likely accelerate selling toward the 1505 low and, if that fails, the 1385 level (April 2025 low). The 4h rising channel is likely a bear flag; a breakdown below 1552 would target 1500.

Most Likely Path The most likely path is a short-term bounce toward the 1660–1700 resistance zone, where sellers will re-enter, followed by a resumption of the downtrend toward 1552 and eventually 1505. This is supported by the daily CMF still negative (-0.05) and the weekly RSI not yet oversold enough to trigger a major reversal. A failed bounce at 1660 would confirm bearish continuation.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry Zone: $1660–$1680 (optimal at $1660, alternative at $1680)
• Stop Loss: $1705 — above the recent swing high and the 20 EMA on daily; a close above this level invalidates the short-term bearish bias.
• Targets: T1: $1552 (previous low) | T2: $1505 (major multi-month support) | T3: $1385 (2025 April low)
• R/R: (1660 - 1552) / (1705 - 1660) = 108 / 45 = 1:2.4 (meets minimum 1.5:1)
• Confidence: Medium (clear trend but oversold conditions may delay entry)

Risks

• Invalidation: A weekly close above $1700 would shift the structure to a possible range, requiring re-evaluation. A daily close above $1779 would invalidate the bearish thesis entirely.
• Warning: Weekly RSI at 31.22 is in oversold territory, so a sharp short-term rally is possible. Position sizing should account for this risk; consider scaling in at resistance and not aggressively at current levels.