Market Summary

PEPE/USDT is in a long-term bearish trend with a strong daily downtrend since mid-May. The weekly structure shows lower highs and lower lows, and the decline phase is still dominant. The key level to watch is the recent low at 0.00000287; a breakdown would accelerate the downtrend.

Market State

Macro trend: bearish (lower highs and lower lows on weekly and daily). Market phase: decline, with distribution indicated by negative CMF on all timeframes. The dominant force is selling pressure, though a short-term bounce is underway from oversold daily RSI.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.00000313, 0.00000342
• Support: 0.00000287, 0.00000269, 0.00000251

Scenarios

Bull Case A sustained reversal would require price to break above the 0.00000342 resistance (daily swing high) and hold above 0.00000313. This would imply a shift in macro structure. However, current volume and CMF are negative, and the weekly ADX is low, suggesting weak bullish conviction. Confirmation would be a weekly close above 0.00000342.

Bear Case Continuation of the downtrend is more structurally supported. The daily ADX is above 45, indicating a strong trend, and the RSI remains below 40. A break below 0.00000287 would target the June low at 0.00000269 and then 0.00000251. The persistent negative CMF and low MFI values confirm distribution. The bounce from 0.00000287 is likely a corrective move within the downtrend.

Most Likely Path The most likely path is a continuation of the downtrend after a brief pullback toward resistance. The daily ADX (45.87) and bearish Ichimoku cloud (not shown but inferred from lower highs) support this. A rejection at 0.00000300–0.00000313 would confirm the bearish stance.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry Zone: 0.00000300 (optimal) to 0.00000305 (alternative)
• Stop Loss: 0.00000320 — above the 0.00000313 resistance level; a break here would invalidate the short-term bearish view.
• Targets: T1: 0.00000260 | T2: 0.00000251 (June low) | T3: 0.00000230 (psychological support)
• R/R: (0.00000300 - 0.00000260) / (0.00000320 - 0.00000300) = 0.00000040 / 0.00000020 = 2.0:1
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: A daily close above 0.00000342 would break the downtrend structure.
• Warning: The short-term bounce could extend to 0.00000313 before resuming the decline, so position sizing should account for potential drawdown.