Market Summary

SOL shows a bullish recovery from the May 23 low of 81.5, with short-term momentum favoring upside. Key resistance at 87.5 will determine if the trend can sustain. Confidence is moderate at 0.58.

Market State

Primary trend on the 4h is bullish as price holds above the Ichimoku cloud and EMA levels, with ADX showing trend strength. Momentum on 1h is bullish with MACD positive, but MFI is overbought, suggesting caution.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 87.5, 88.0
• Support: 85.6, 84.8, 84.0

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario A move above 86.2 could trigger a rally toward resistance at 87.5. The 1h ADX and MACD support upside, and volume flow (CMF positive) adds weight. If price breaks 87.5, next target is 88.0. The bullish case is confirmed if the 1h RSI stays above 50 and holds above 85.6 support.

Bearish Scenario Failure at 86.2 and a drop below 85.6 would signal weakness. A breakdown under 84.8 could accelerate selling toward 84.0. The overbought MFI on 1h (82.88) warns of a potential pullback. If 4h RSI turns below 50, the bearish scenario gains merit.

Current Lean The data slightly favors the bullish scenario due to the 4h price above cloud and EMA, plus positive MACD histogram. However, the 1h MFI overbought condition and 4h RSI neutral limit confidence. A break below 85.6 would shift the lean to bearish.

Trade Setup

• Direction: LONG
• Entry Zone: $85.50–$85.70 (optimal: $85.50, alternative: $85.70)
• Stop Loss: $84.50 — below the recent swing low at 85.58 and support at 84.8
• Targets: T1: $87.00 | T2: $87.50
• R/R: (87.00 - 85.50) / (85.50 - 84.50) = 1.50 / 1.00 = 1.5:1
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: A break below $84.50 cancels the bullish setup and suggests further downside.
• Warning: The 1h MFI is overbought at 82.88, which could trigger a short-term pullback before the next leg up.