Market Summary

SOL is in a sustained downtrend on daily and 4h timeframes, with price below key EMAs and bearish indicators. However, extreme oversold readings (RSI 34 daily, Stoch RSI 0) suggest a possible bounce before further downside.

Market State

Macro trend is bearish with lower highs and lower lows since mid-March. Price is in a decline phase with strong selling pressure. The dominant force is downward momentum.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 81.50, 82.00, 84.00
• Support: 79.00, 77.00, 75.00

Scenarios

Bull Case A reversal would require price to reclaim the 4h EMA20 (81.52) and subsequently break above 84.00 to invalidate the downtrend. Current indicators do not support this, as momentum remains bearish and volume confirms selling.

Bear Case Continuation of decline is favored. A break below 79.00 (recent support) would target 77.00 and potentially 75.00. Indicators align: ADX trending, MACD bearish, CMF negative.

Most Likely Path Further downside is likely given the structural downtrend and indicator alignment. A short-term bounce into resistance around 81.50-82.00 would provide an entry opportunity for continuation shorts.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry Zone: $81.50–$82.00
• Stop Loss: $83.00 (above recent swing highs)
• Targets: T1: $79.00 | T2: $77.00 | T3: $75.00
• R/R: (81.50 - 79.00) / (83.00 - 81.50) = 2.50 / 1.50 = 1.67:1
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: A break above $83.00 would signal a potential trend reversal.
• Warning: Oversold conditions could lead to a sharp snap-back rally, so position sizing should account for volatility.