Market Summary

Bullish bias on 4h with improving daily structure, but key resistance at 289 must break for sustained upside. Confidence medium.

Market State

4h uptrend with higher highs/higher lows, daily still in a corrective phase from April highs but showing potential reversal from May 19 low. ADX on daily weak but 4h trending strongly.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 289, 300, 310
• Support: 275, 271, 255

Scenarios

Bull Case Sustained break above 289 would confirm a daily uptrend, targeting 300 (psychological and historical resistance) and then 310-320 (April range). Strong 4h momentum, positive volume flow (CMF >0, OBV rising), and bullish MACD support this move. Confirmation needed: daily close above 289.

Bear Case Failure to hold above 275 and a break below 271 (recent 4h low) would signal a false breakout, potentially retesting 255 (May lows). Daily structure still shows lower highs, and a rejection at 289 could lead to another leg down. Confirmation needed: daily close below 271.

Most Likely Path Given strong 4h momentum (ADX 36, plusDI well above minusDI, price above EMAs) and improving daily RSI, a retest of 289 is likely. The path is bullish as long as 275 support holds. The 4h trend is dominant, so a pullback to 275 would offer a high-probability long entry.

Trade Setup

• Direction: LONG
• Entry Zone: $275–$280 (optimal $275, alternative $280)
• Stop Loss: $271 — below recent 4h low and EMAs
• Targets: T1: $289 | T2: $300 | T3: $310
• R/R: (289-275)/(275-271) = 14/4 = 3.5:1
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: Break below $271 invalidates bullish structure, possible drop to $255.
• Warning: Daily trend not fully confirmed; failure at 289 could lead to a range.