Market Summary

TRX/USDT is in a strong multi-week uptrend with clear bullish structure. The daily ADX at 62 confirms a trending market, and all major indicators (EMA, Supertrend, Ichimoku) are aligned to the upside. However, RSI on both daily (84) and 4h (76) is overbought, suggesting a near-term pullback is likely before the next leg higher. The key level to watch is support at 0.3585; a break below would weaken the bullish thesis.

Market State

Macro trend is firmly bullish with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since mid-April. Price is in a markup phase, accelerating above the Ichimoku cloud and all EMAs. The dominant force is buying pressure, reflected in positive CMF and strong volume.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.3763 (recent high), 0.3800 (psychological), 0.4000 (round number)
• Support: 0.3585 (May 23 low), 0.3550 (prior consolidation), 0.3500 (psychological)

Scenarios

Bull Case The current uptrend remains intact as long as price holds above the 0.3585 swing low. A pullback to the 0.3650-0.3620 zone would offer a risk/reward entry for continuation toward the 0.3800 resistance and potentially 0.4000 over the coming weeks. The daily ADX above 50 and strongly positive CMF (0.26) support further upside. Confirmation would be a bounce off the 4h EMA20 (0.3673) or a bullish engulfing candle on the daily.

Bear Case If price breaks below 0.3585, it would signal a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. The overbought RSI (84 daily) could trigger a profit-taking selloff, targeting the 0.3500 support or lower. Volume divergence (if any) is not present, but momentum divergence on the 4h could appear if price makes a lower high. Confirmation would be a daily close below 0.3585.

Most Likely Path Given the strong trend and institutional volume (daily CMF 0.26, OBV rising), a pullback to the 0.3650-0.3620 zone is probable before resuming the uptrend. The daily ADX of 62 indicates trend strength, so the path of least resistance remains up.

Trade Setup

• Direction: LONG
• Entry Zone: $0.3650 (optimal) – $0.3620 (alternative)
• Stop Loss: $0.3575 — below the May 23 low of 0.3585; a break under invalidates the bullish structure.
• Targets: T1: $0.3800 | T2: $0.4000
• R/R: (0.3800 - 0.3650) / (0.3650 - 0.3575) = 0.0150 / 0.0075 = 2.0:1 for optimal entry
• Confidence: High

Risks

• Invalidation: Daily close below 0.3585 would break the bullish market structure and trigger exit.
• Warning: RSI is deeply overbought on both timeframes; a sharp correction of 3-5% is possible before the uptrend resumes. Patience in entry is recommended.