Market Summary

TRX/USDT is in a short-term pullback within a larger uptrend. The 1h trend remains bullish but momentum has turned bearish, and price is testing key support. Oversold on 15m suggests a possible bounce, but selling pressure persists. The market is at a decision point.

Market State

1h trend: uptrend intact (price above supertrend, ADX 25) but weakening as price falls below EMA9/20. 15m momentum: bearish with RSI 28 (oversold), MACD negative, and negative CMF indicating distribution. Immediate action: consolidation around 0.3310-0.3320.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.3320, 0.3327, 0.3340
• Support: 0.3310, 0.3305, 0.3298

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario If price holds 0.3310 and shows a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., double bottom or bullish engulfing on 15m) with increasing volume and RSI rising above 30, a bounce toward 0.3320-0.3327 is possible. Upside targets: initial 0.3320, then 0.3327 (EMA9 1h). Indicators supporting: oversold RSI (potential mean reversion), still-positive 1h CMF (0.34). Contradicting: negative 15m CMF and OBV, bearish MACD. Confirmation needed: price must reclaim 0.3320 with above-average volume.

Bearish Scenario If price breaks below 0.3310 with conviction (volume spike, RSI staying below 30), the pullback could extend to 0.3305 or even 0.3298. Bearish drivers: MACD histogram deepening negative, CMF negative on 15m, and price below 1h EMA9/20. A break of 0.3310 would confirm weakness, targeting 0.3305 then 0.3298. Contradiction: strong 1h trend still supports the bull case, making a sharp drop less likely.

Current Lean Neutral. The 15m oversold condition argues for a bounce, but negative momentum and volume favor further downside. The lack of clear directional conviction means the risk/reward is not compelling for an entry. Watch for a break of 0.3310 (bearish trigger) or a reclaim of 0.3320 (bullish trigger).

Trade Setup

• Direction: Neutral
• Confidence: Low
• Key Levels: Support at 0.3310, 0.3305, 0.3298 | Resistance at 0.3320, 0.3327, 0.3340
• Watch: A sustained move above 0.3320 opens path to 0.3327-0.3340; a break below 0.3310 targets 0.3305-0.3298. Wait for confirmation before entering.

Risks

• Invalidation: If price reclaims 0.3325 and holds, bearish setup invalidated. If price breaks below 0.3305, bullish bounce invalidated.
• Warning: Mixed signals across timeframes; avoid forcing a trade. Tight stops if entering.