Market Summary

Macro direction is bearish with price in a sustained downtrend; the critical level to watch over the coming weeks is resistance at 1.45, which must hold for the decline to continue.

Market State

The daily chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend, currently in the decline phase driven by persistent selling pressure.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.45, 1.50
• Support: 1.30, 1.25

Scenarios

Bull Case A reversal would require XRP/USDT to break above the 1.50 resistance level with increasing volume and bullish indicator confirmations, targeting 1.60 and 1.70 over weeks. However, current daily ADX minus_di above plus_di and price below EMAs oppose this, and confirmation is needed from daily RSI rising above 50 and MACD turning positive.

Bear Case Continued downtrend is likely if price fails to reclaim 1.45, with targets at 1.30, 1.25, and 1.20 over the coming weeks. This is supported by the daily ADX showing bearish strength, price below all major EMAs, and negative MACD histogram.

Most Likely Path The bearish scenario has more structural support, as evidenced by the daily ADX minus_di consistently above plus_di and price making new lows; a break below 1.30 would confirm the dominant downtrend.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry Zone: 1.40–1.45
• Stop Loss: 1.50 — invalidates if price breaks above key resistance
• Targets: T1: 1.30 | T2: 1.25
• R/R: 1:2
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: Price closing above 1.50 on the daily chart
• Warning: High volatility near support levels could trigger sharp bounces.