Market Summary

Bullish momentum persists with strong trend alignment across 1h and 15m timeframes. Price is at resistance 1.15, but overbought conditions on 15m (RSI 72, Stoch RSI 100) suggest near-term caution. The key level to watch is a breakout above 1.15 for continuation toward 1.16.

Market State

Uptrend is intact on 1h (ADX 29, price above EMAs and Ichimoku cloud) and accelerating on 15m (ADX 42). Momentum is bullish but overextended on shorter timeframe, with RSI and Stoch RSI in overbought territory. Volume shows mixed signals: 15m CMF positive, 1h CMF slightly negative.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.15, 1.16
• Support: 1.14, 1.13

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario A decisive break above 1.15 with volume would confirm continuation of the uptrend. The 1h MACD histogram still rising and ADX trending strong support this. Targets: 1.16 (recent swing high) and potentially 1.17 if momentum sustains. Overbought conditions on 15m could lead to a minor pullback before the breakout, so patience for confirmation is advised.

Bearish Scenario Failure to break above 1.15 and a drop below 1.14 would indicate that the rally has exhausted. Overbought readings on 15m RSI and MFI support this possibility. In that case, a decline toward 1.13 (recent 1h support) or 1.12 (lower Bollinger band on 1h) would be expected.

Current Lean The weight of evidence favors the bullish scenario due to strong trend indicators (ADX, Supertrend, Ichimoku) on both timeframes. However, overbought momentum calls for a cautious approach - waiting for a pullback or breakout confirmation.

Trade Setup

• Direction: LONG
• Entry: $1.152 (optimal, breakout above 1.15) / $1.142 (alternative, pullback to support)
• Stop Loss: $1.148 for optimal entry (below 1.15 support) / $1.138 for alternative (below 1.14 support)
• Targets: T1: $1.16 (recent high) | T2: $1.17 (extension, if momentum strong)
• R/R: For optimal entry: (1.16 - 1.152) / (1.152 - 1.148) = 0.008 / 0.004 = 2:1. For alternative: (1.16 - 1.142) / (1.142 - 1.138) = 0.018 / 0.004 = 4.5:1 (assuming same target)
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: Price closes below 1.14 on 1h, negating the bullish structure.
• Warning: Overbought momentum indicators (RSI, Stoch RSI, MFI) on 15m could trigger a sharp reversal.