Market Summary

Bearish bias with high confidence as all three indicator groups (Trend, Momentum, Volume) align to the downside. Key resistance at $401.5-402.5 is capping intraday rallies, and the risk-off macro backdrop (FGI=13, BTC -2.5% 24h) reinforces selling pressure.

Market State

Short-term trend is bearish on the 15m timeframe with ADX 33 and minus_di > plus_di. Momentum is fading after a bounce from $395, with Stoch RSI overbought (K=100) and MFI at 24 (oversold but no divergence). Price is below the 15m EMA9 ($398.99) and EMA20 ($401.96), and CMF is negative, confirming volume outflow.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $401.5, $402.5
• Support: $396.8, $395.0

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario A break above $402.5 with volume would invalidate the bearish setup. A reclaim of the 15m EMA20 ($402) and a push above $404 could signal a reversal toward $407 (prior 1h high). However, this is unlikely given the current indicator alignment and macro headwinds.

Bearish Scenario Continued selling below $401.5 targets $398 (recent 15m swing low) and then $395 (today's low). A breakdown below $395 opens the door to $392 (Bollinger lower band on 15m). The bearish confluence across all groups supports this path, and the risk-off environment adds weight.

Current Lean Bearish. Price is near resistance with overbought Stoch RSI and negative momentum. The path of least resistance is down.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry: $401.5 (optimal) / $402.5 (alternative)
• Stop Loss: $403.0 — above the $402.5 resistance and recent 15m high
• Targets: T1: $398.0 | T2: $395.0 | T3: $392.0
• R/R: 1:2.3
• Confidence: High
• Confidence Basis: All three voting groups (Trend, Momentum, Volume) are bearish on the 15m and 1h timeframes, with strong ADX trend and overbought Stoch RSI supporting a reversal; macro risk-off reinforces the bearish thesis.

Risks

• Invalidation: A break above $403 with close above $404 would break the bearish structure. Additionally, if BTC reverses sharply upward (+3%), it could lift ZEC despite local weakness.
• Warning: Tight stop due to low liquidity; watch for whipsaws near $402.