ETH/USDT Medium-Term Market Analysis

1. Summary

The ETH/USDT pair is currently showing mixed signals, with short-term bearish pressure but medium-term bullish potential. The 1-hour timeframe indicates a recent downtrend, while the 4-hour timeframe suggests a possible recovery if key support levels hold.

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2. Technical Indicator Analysis

1-Hour Timeframe (Bearish Short-Term Pressure)

• Sell signals dominate (27 vs. 17 buy signals in the latest candle).
• MACD (-10.35, signal -6.63, histogram -3.73) – Bearish momentum.
• RSI (39.04) – Approaching oversold but not yet extreme.
• EMA (EMA9 < EMA20) – Short-term bearish crossover.
• DMI (Plus DI 13.62, Minus DI 26.68) – Bearish trend strength.
• Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span A < Senkou Span B) – Bearish cloud structure.

4-Hour Timeframe (Bullish Medium-Term Structure)

• Buy signals outweigh sells (19 vs. 21 in latest candle).
• ADX (37.97, Plus DI 26.70, Minus DI 14.07) – Strong bullish trend.
• MACD (47.57, signal 58.32, histogram -10.75) – Bullish but weakening.
• RSI (53.20) – Neutral, no extreme overbought/oversold.
• Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span A > Senkou Span B) – Bullish cloud structure.
• Supertrend (2554.86, direction up) – Confirms bullish bias.

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3. Price Analysis

• Recent downtrend (1H): ETH dropped from 2773.21 to 2719.79, testing support at 2711.94.
• Medium-term uptrend (4H): ETH remains above key support at 2695.45 (last lower fractal).
• Volatility: ATR (30.69 on 1H, 58.55 on 4H) suggests medium-term volatility remains elevated.

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4. Support and Resistance Levels

Key Support Levels (Bullish Defense Needed)

• Immediate Support: 2711.94 (recent swing low).
• Strong Support: 2695.45 (4H fractal support).
• Major Support: 2642.98 (Supertrend level).

Key Resistance Levels (Breakout Targets)

• Immediate Resistance: 2758.34 (EMA20 on 1H).
• Next Resistance: 2795.58 (Kijun-Sen on 4H).
• Major Resistance: 2831.21 (upper Donchian channel).

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5. Medium-Term Outlook

• Bullish if support holds: A bounce from 2695-2711 could retest 2795-2831.
• Bearish if breakdown occurs: A drop below 2695 may target 2642 (Supertrend support).
• MACD divergence (4H): If MACD turns upward, expect a bullish continuation.

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6. Risk Factors

• Short-term weakness: High sell signals on 1H suggest further downside risk.
• Liquidity zones: A break below 2695 could trigger stop-losses, accelerating declines.
• Market sentiment: If Bitcoin weakens, ETH may follow.
• Volume decline: Lower volume on recent candles suggests caution.

Final Thoughts

• Short-term: Bearish pressure, watch 2711-2695 support.
• Medium-term: Bullish structure intact if 2695 holds.
• Trade idea: Consider long positions near 2695-2711 with a stop below 2642, targeting 2795-2831.

(Note: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.)