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ETHAnalyse IA ETH Moyen terme

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ETH/USDT Medium-Term Market Analysis

1. Summary

ETH/USDT is currently showing mixed signals across different timeframes, with a slight bearish bias in the short term (1h) but potential for stabilization or reversal in the medium term (4h). The price is consolidating after a recent drop, with key support and resistance levels in play.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

1h Timeframe (Short-Term Bearish Bias)

  • Sell signals dominate (29 vs. 12 buys in latest candle), suggesting short-term downward pressure.
  • ADX (34.90) indicates a strong trend, but -DI (33.56) > +DI (10.88) confirms bearish momentum.
  • MACD (-34.56, below signal line) reinforces bearish momentum.
  • RSI (31.16) is near oversold but not yet extreme, suggesting further downside is possible.
  • EMA (9 below 20) confirms a short-term downtrend.
  • Supertrend (3566.01, bullish signal) contradicts other indicators, hinting at potential reversal if price holds above this level.

4h Timeframe (Mixed, but Stabilizing)

  • Sell signals (31 vs. 9 buys in latest candle), but some bullish divergences appear.
  • ADX (19.59) suggests weakening trend strength.
  • MACD (-8.14, below signal) remains bearish, but histogram shows slowing momentum.
  • RSI (40.94) is neutral, not oversold, allowing for further downside or consolidation.
  • Supertrend (3451.01, bullish signal) suggests underlying support if price holds above this level.
  • OBV (neutral) shows no strong accumulation/distribution yet.

3. Price Analysis

  • Current Price (1h): ~3675.10, struggling below 3700 resistance.
  • Recent Drop: Fell from 3724.02 to 3616.66 (4h low), now retesting mid-range.
  • Trend: Short-term downtrend (1h), but medium-term (4h) is consolidating after a deeper correction.

4. Support & Resistance Levels

Key Support Levels (Buy Zones)

  • Immediate Support: 3650–3635 (STARC Bands lower, Fibonacci S1).
  • Strong Support: 3616.66 (recent swing low, critical for bulls).
  • Lower Support: 3550–3570 (Supertrend & psychological level).

Key Resistance Levels (Sell Zones)

  • Immediate Resistance: 3700–3724 (previous swing high, EMA20 on 1h).
  • Strong Resistance: 3750–3770 (EMA20 on 4h, Ichimoku cloud).
  • Upper Resistance: 3800–3825 (previous consolidation zone).

5. Medium-Term Outlook

  • Bearish Short-Term (1h): If price fails to hold 3650, a retest of 3616 is likely.
  • Potential Reversal (4h): If ETH holds 3616 and reclaims 3700, a move toward 3750–3800 is possible.
  • Bullish Confirmation Needed: A break above 3750 with volume could signal a trend reversal.
  • Bearish Continuation Risk: A drop below 3616 could lead to 3550 or lower.

6. Risk Factors

  • Market Sentiment: If Bitcoin weakens, ETH may follow.
  • Liquidity Zones: Watch for stops below 3616 or above 3750.
  • Divergences: Some indicators (Supertrend, CCI) hint at reversal, but confirmation is needed.
  • Volume: Low volume on bounces suggests weak buying interest.

Final Thoughts

ETH is in a correction phase but shows signs of stabilization. Key levels to watch:

  • Bullish Case: Hold 3616, break 3700 → 3750–3800.
  • Bearish Case: Lose 3616 → 3550–3500.

Trading Strategy: Wait for confirmation (break of 3700 or breakdown below 3616) before taking medium-term positions.