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TRUMPAnalyse IA TRUMP Moyen terme

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MARKET STRUCTURE: TRUMP/USDT is currently in a consolidation phase after a recent downtrend from the 6.207 swing high, with the price testing key support levels around 5.80-5.85. The 4h timeframe shows a strong trend (ADX 34.79) with bearish pressure (Minus DI > Plus DI), but the 1h timeframe indicates potential bullish momentum building (Plus DI > Minus DI and rising RSI). Overall, the market is at a critical juncture, with the 4h structure suggesting caution while the 1h hints at a possible reversal.

SWING SETUP:

  • Direction: BUY
  • Entry Zone: 5.82 - 5.88
  • Ideal Entry: 5.85
  • Setup Type: Support Bounce / Trend Reversal
  • Confidence: Medium

POSITION MANAGEMENT:

  • Stop Loss: 5.75 (below the recent swing low of 5.743 and key Fibonacci S3 level)
  • Target 1: 6.00 (conservative, based on previous resistance and 4h Fibonacci R1 level; 3-5 days)
  • Target 2: 6.20 (extended, near the 6.207 swing high; 7-10 days)
  • Risk/Reward: 1:1.5 (Target 1) to 1:3.5 (Target 2)

KEY LEVELS & SCENARIOS:

  • Major Support: 5.75 - 5.80 (confluence of recent swing lows, 4h Fibonacci S3 at 5.82, and 1h support at 5.835)
  • Major Resistance: 6.00 - 6.05 (4h Fibonacci R1 at 5.99 and previous highs)
  • If price breaks below 5.75: Expect further downside toward 5.55-5.60, invalidating the buy setup.
  • If price holds above 5.80: Likely bounce toward 6.00-6.20, confirming bullish momentum.

DIVERGENCES & PATTERNS:

  • No strong bullish or bearish divergences detected on RSI or MACD across timeframes.
  • Price is consolidating in a range on the 1h chart (5.835-5.974), with potential for a breakout. The 4h chart shows a base formation near support, but no clear pattern yet.

RISK FACTORS:

  • Break below 5.75 support could trigger further selling pressure.
  • Low volume or bearish indicator crossovers (e.g., MACD turning negative on 4h) may invalidate the setup.
  • Overall market volatility and external factors (e.g., news) could impact price action.