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中期新規取引現物

AVAXAVAX 中期 AI分析

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AVAX/USDT Medium-Term Market Analysis

1. Summary

AVAX/USDT is currently showing mixed signals across different timeframes, with a slight bearish bias in the short term (1h) but some potential for a reversal in the medium term (4h). The price is consolidating near key support levels, and indicators suggest a possible continuation of the downtrend unless buying pressure increases.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

  • 1h Timeframe:

    • Sell signals dominate (28 vs. 14 buys) – EMA, MACD, DMI, and Ichimoku Cloud all indicate bearish momentum.
    • Oversold conditions (CCI, STOCH, WILLR) – Some indicators suggest a potential short-term bounce.
    • Weak trend strength (ADX ~14) – The downtrend lacks strong momentum, increasing the risk of sideways movement.

  • 4h Timeframe:

    • Bearish but with some recovery signs – ADX (~25) shows a moderate downtrend, but TRIX and MACD hint at possible bullish divergence.
    • Key reversal signals (TRIX, SMI, STOCH_RSI) – Some indicators suggest weakening selling pressure.
    • Volume declining – OBV and MFI indicate weakening bearish momentum, which could lead to consolidation.

3. Price Analysis

  • Current Trend: Downtrend (1h) with consolidation (4h).
  • Recent Price Action:
    • 1h: Price rejected from $17.84 (resistance) and fell to $17.09 (support).
    • 4h: Struggling to hold above $17.25, with resistance near $17.74.
  • Volume: Declining volume suggests weakening bearish momentum.

4. Support and Resistance Levels

  • Key Support Levels:
    • $17.09 (Recent swing low, 1h)
    • $16.65 (4h Bollinger lower band)
    • $16.26 (Donchian lower channel)
  • Key Resistance Levels:
    • $17.74 (4h EMA20 & recent high)
    • $18.02 (Fractal Chaos upper band)
    • $18.49 (Donchian upper channel)

5. Medium-Term Outlook

  • Bearish Scenario (60% probability):
    • If $17.09 breaks, next target is $16.65–$16.26.
    • Confirmation: Continued sell signals on 4h (MACD, ADX).
  • Bullish Reversal Scenario (40% probability):
    • If $17.74 is reclaimed, a retest of $18.02–$18.49 is possible.
    • Confirmation: Strong volume surge + bullish divergence on 4h RSI/MFI.

6. Risk Factors

  • Downside Risks:
    • Continued selling pressure could push AVAX toward $16.26.
    • Weak BTC performance may drag AVAX lower.
  • Upside Risks:
    • A breakout above $17.74 could trigger short-covering.
    • Positive market sentiment could fuel a relief rally.

Final Verdict

AVAX is in a neutral-to-bearish phase, with key support at $17.09. A break below could extend losses, while a hold and reversal above $17.74 may signal a short-term recovery. Traders should watch for confirmation from volume and key indicator crossovers before taking positions.

(Note: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.)