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中期新規取引現物

AVAXAVAX 中期 AI分析

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AVAX/USDT Medium-Term Market Analysis

1. Summary

AVAX/USDT is currently in a bearish phase, with strong selling pressure visible across both 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes. The price has been declining from recent highs, and technical indicators suggest further downside potential in the medium term unless key support levels hold.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

1-Hour Timeframe

  • Sell Signals Dominate (26 vs. 19 Buy Signals in latest candle)
    • ADX (39.37) indicates a strong trend (bearish).
    • MACD (-0.37) and EMA (9 < 20) confirm bearish momentum.
    • RSI (31.64) is near oversold but not yet signaling a reversal.
    • OBV (-62.6M) shows decreasing buying volume.
    • Ichimoku Cloud (Bearish) – Price below the cloud, with Senkou Span A < Senkou Span B.

4-Hour Timeframe

  • More Bearish (28 Sell vs. 13 Buy Signals in latest candle)
    • ADX (22.49) suggests weakening trend strength.
    • MACD (-0.31) remains negative.
    • RSI (35.43) is neutral but leaning bearish.
    • Ichimoku Cloud (Bearish) – Price below the cloud.
    • Volume (Decreasing) – Lower volume on recent declines suggests weakening momentum.

3. Price Analysis

  • Current Trend: Downtrend (Lower highs and lower lows).
  • Recent Price Action:
    • 1H: Rejected at $23.64, now testing $23.10 support.
    • 4H: Failed to hold above $24.00, now near $23.10.
  • Momentum: Bearish (MACD, EMA, ADX all support downside).

4. Support and Resistance Levels

Key Levels (1H & 4H)

  • Immediate Support: $23.10 (Recent low, critical for short-term bulls).
  • Next Support: $22.74 (Volatility Stop & Fractal Chaos Band).
  • Resistance Levels:
    • $23.53 (Fibonacci Pivot R1).
    • $23.87 (EMA20 & Ichimoku Kijun-Sen).
    • $24.00 (Psychological resistance).

5. Medium-Term Outlook

  • Bearish Bias: The market structure favors sellers, with multiple indicators (MACD, ADX, Ichimoku) supporting further downside.
  • Potential Reversal Signal Needed:
    • A break above $23.87 (EMA20) could signal short-term recovery.
    • If $23.10 breaks, next target is $22.74.
  • If Bulls Regain Control:
    • A sustained move above $24.00 could shift sentiment.

6. Risk Factors

  • Downside Risks:
    • Continued selling pressure could push AVAX toward $22.50–$22.00.
    • Weak volume suggests lack of strong buying interest.
  • Upside Risks:
    • If BTC/USD recovers, AVAX may see relief.
    • Oversold RSI could trigger a short-term bounce.

Final Thoughts

AVAX/USDT is in a bearish phase, and traders should watch $23.10 for potential breakdowns or reversals. A break below could lead to further declines, while a reclaim of $23.87 may signal a short-term recovery. Medium-term traders should wait for confirmation before entering long positions.