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中期新規取引現物

BTCBTC 中期 AI分析

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MARKET STRUCTURE: BTC/USDT is currently in a corrective phase after reaching recent highs above 116,000. The 4h timeframe shows a weakening downtrend with prices consolidating around 107,500-108,000, while the 1h timeframe indicates oversold conditions (RSI at 29.29), suggesting a potential bounce or reversal in the short term. Overall, the trend is bearish on higher timeframes but shows signs of exhaustion, making a bullish swing setup plausible.

SWING SETUP:

  • Direction: BUY
  • Entry Zone: 107,000 - 108,000
  • Ideal Entry: 107,500
  • Setup Type: Trend Reversal
  • Confidence: Medium

POSITION MANAGEMENT:

  • Stop Loss: 106,500 (below recent swing low and key support)
  • Target 1: 110,000 (conservative, 3-5 days)
  • Target 2: 112,000 (extended, 7-10 days)
  • Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 (based on 500-point risk vs. 1250-point average reward)

KEY LEVELS & SCENARIOS:

  • Major Support: 107,400 (recent 1h low, tested multiple times)
  • Major Resistance: 111,000 (previous swing high and Fibonacci 0.382 level)
  • If price breaks 106,500 → Expect further decline to 105,000
  • If price holds 107,400 → Likely bounce towards 110,000

DIVERGENCES & PATTERNS:

  • Bullish RSI divergence on 1h timeframe: RSI made a low of 29.29 while price tested 107,400, indicating potential reversal. No clear chart patterns observed in recent candles.

RISK FACTORS:

  • Continued bearish momentum could invalidate the setup if price breaks below 106,500.
  • Low volume or lack of follow-through buying may limit upside.
  • Macro factors or external news could drive volatility against the position.