Market Summary

BTC is in a multi-week corrective phase after a major rally, currently testing key support around $66,000. The market shows bearish momentum but remains above critical long-term support, with the coming weeks likely determining whether this is a healthy pullback or the start of a deeper decline.

Market State

The daily chart shows a clear downtrend structure with lower highs and lower lows since the March 25 peak at $72,026. Price is currently trading below both the 9 and 20-day EMAs ($68,335 and $69,210 respectively), indicating bearish near-term momentum. The market appears to be in a distribution/decline phase after the March rally, with selling pressure evident across multiple timeframes.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $69,000, $71,000 (recent swing highs and EMA confluence)
• Support: $66,000, $65,000 (recent lows and psychological level)

Scenarios

Bull Case For sustained upside over weeks, BTC needs to reclaim and hold above the $69,000 resistance zone, which aligns with the 9-day EMA and recent swing highs. This would require a shift in momentum indicators, particularly the RSI (currently 40.84) breaking above 50 and the MACD histogram turning positive. Volume confirmation through rising OBV would signal accumulation. Multi-week targets would be $71,000 and potentially $73,000 if the daily structure shifts to higher highs. However, current bearish momentum and negative CMF (-0.0465) oppose this scenario, requiring significant buying pressure to reverse.

Bear Case Continued downside would be triggered by a decisive break below $65,000 support, which has been tested multiple times in recent weeks. This would confirm the lower low structure and likely target the $63,000-$62,000 zone (March 23 low at $62,531). Bearish indicators support this: ADX at 16.45 shows weak trend but minus DI (26.46) exceeds plus DI (19.25), price below both EMAs, and negative CMF. Multi-week decline could extend to $60,000 if selling accelerates. The Supertrend remains bullish at $58,862, providing a longer-term safety net, but a break below $65,000 would challenge this.

Most Likely Path Given the confluence of bearish momentum indicators (RSI below 50, MACD negative, price below EMAs) and the clear lower high structure, the most likely path is continued pressure toward $65,000 support. The exact level to watch is $65,000 - a decisive daily close below this would confirm bearish continuation, while a bounce from this zone could set up a range-bound consolidation.

Trade Setup

• Direction: Neutral
• Confidence: 0.48
• Key Levels: Support at $66,000, $65,000 | Resistance at $69,000, $71,000
• Watch: A daily close above $69,000 would create a long opportunity targeting $71,000 with stop below $65,000. A daily close below $65,000 would create a short opportunity targeting $63,000 with stop above $67,000.

Risks

• Invalidation: A daily close above $71,000 would invalidate the bearish structure and suggest resumption of uptrend.
• Warning: Low ADX (16.45) indicates weak trend strength, which could lead to choppy, range-bound price action rather than clear directional moves.