Market Summary

BTC is in a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend, with price currently testing key support near $70,800-$71,000. The 4h trend remains bullish but momentum has weakened significantly, requiring a decisive break above $71,800 to resume the uptrend.

Market State

The primary 4h timeframe shows a bullish trend (Supertrend direction=1, price above EMA20 at $71,838) but momentum has turned negative (MACD histogram -339.98, RSI 44.93). The 1h timeframe confirms the correction with price below both EMA9 ($71,139) and EMA20 ($71,486), creating a short-term bearish structure. The main driver is profit-taking after the recent rally to $73,800.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $71,800, $72,400, $73,800
• Support: $70,800, $70,000, $69,000

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario Price finds support at the $70,800-$71,000 confluence zone (Fibonacci S1 at $70,873, recent swing low at $70,800) and reverses higher. A break above $71,800 (recent resistance and EMA20 confluence) would confirm trend resumption, targeting $72,400 (4h Bollinger middle) then $73,800 (recent high). This scenario is supported by the 4h Supertrend remaining bullish at $68,700 and the broader uptrend structure from $66,000 lows. Confirmation requires RSI recovery above 50 and MACD histogram turning positive.

Bearish Scenario The correction deepens as price breaks below $70,800 support, targeting the next major support at $70,000 (psychological level and 4h Fibonacci S2) then $69,000 (4h Supertrend value). This scenario is supported by weakening momentum indicators (1h RSI 35.13, CMF -0.342 negative volume flow) and the ADX showing strong trend strength (41.95) with minus_DI (31.73) dominating plus_DI (13.14). A break below $69,000 would invalidate the bullish structure and signal a deeper correction.

Current Lean The data leans cautiously bullish due to the intact 4h uptrend structure, but momentum is clearly bearish short-term. The critical level is $70,800 – a break below would shift the lean to bearish, while holding above it maintains the bullish correction thesis.

Trade Setup

• Direction: LONG
• Entry Zone: $70,800–$71,000
• Stop Loss: $69,800 — below the $70,000 psychological support and recent swing low
• Targets: T1: $71,800 | T2: $72,400 | T3: $73,800
• R/R: (71,800 - 70,900) / (70,900 - 69,800) = 900/1,100 = 1:1.22 (using mid-entry $70,900)
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: Price closing below $69,800 on 4h timeframe
• Warning: High ADX (41.95) indicates strong trend momentum, but minus_DI > plus_DI suggests selling pressure. Wait for price action confirmation at support before entering.