Neutral Summary

Market is in a downtrend but showing oversold conditions on lower timeframes, with key support at $1811-1815; a break below could extend losses, while a hold may lead to a corrective bounce over the next 3-10 days.

Market State

The primary 4h timeframe shows a bearish structure with price below all major moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud, but momentum indicators like RSI and MACD hint at potential divergence or oversold bounce. The 1h chart is deeply oversold with RSI at 31.34, suggesting near-term volatility.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $1860, $1880, $1960
• Support: $1815, $1811, $1800

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario If price holds above $1811 and breaks above the 1h EMAs around $1860-1880, it could signal a short-term reversal towards $1900 and potentially $1950 over 3-10 days. This is supported by oversold RSI on 1h (31.34), positive MACD histogram on both timeframes (1.66 on 4h, 1.4 on 1h), and bullish Supertrend on 1h (price above 1773.96). Confirmation would be a 4h close above $1860 with RSI rising above 50.

Bearish Scenario A breakdown below $1811 could accelerate selling, targeting the next support at $1800 (Fibonacci pivot S3) and extending to $1750 based on ATR (38.85 on 4h) and trend extension. This aligns with the dominant bearish ADX (minus_di 23.38 > plus_di 12.71 on 4h), price below lower Bollinger Bands, and high sell signal counts (36 sell vs 25 buy on latest 4h). Confirmation would be a 4h close below $1810 with increased volume.

Current Lean The data leans slightly bearish due to the 4h downtrend and high sell signal counts, but the oversold 1h RSI at 31.34 suggests a bounce is possible. The critical level to watch is $1811; a break below shifts the lean firmly bearish, while a hold above could prompt a neutral to bullish correction.

Trade Setup

No clear trade opportunity at this time.

Analysis is complete, but no reliable entry point was identified in current market conditions:

• Conflicting signals between bearish trend structure (price below EMAs, Ichimoku cloud) and oversold momentum indicators (RSI, MACD histogram)
• Lack of clear swing point confirmation for entry, with price hovering near support without decisive breakout

Watch for entry signals:

• Long signal: Price holds above $1811 and breaks above $1860 on 4h with RSI above 50 and MACD turning positive.
• Short signal: Price breaks below $1810 on 4h with increased volume and RSI staying below 40.

Risks

• Invalidation: For any long bias, a break below $1810 invalidates the bounce scenario and could lead to further downside. For short, a break above $1880 on 1h could signal a stronger correction towards $1900+.