Market Summary

ETH/USDT is in a corrective phase after a strong multi-week uptrend, with price currently testing key support levels. The critical threshold to watch over the coming weeks is the $2,300–$2,285 support zone; a decisive break below would signal a deeper correction.

Market State

The daily chart shows a clear uptrend from early February ($1,800) to mid-April ($2,464), establishing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. However, the recent rejection from $2,464 and subsequent decline to $2,355 indicates a pullback within the broader uptrend. The market is likely in a distribution/consolidation phase after the markup, with the dominant force shifting from bullish momentum to profit-taking pressure.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $2,464, $2,415, $2,380
• Support: $2,300, $2,285, $2,240

Scenarios

Bull Case For sustained upside over weeks, ETH needs to hold above the $2,300–$2,285 support zone and reclaim the $2,380 resistance (recent 4h EMA20). This would confirm the pullback as healthy consolidation before resuming the uptrend. The daily Supertrend (value $2,049) and Ichimoku cloud (thickening bullish) provide structural support. Confirmation would come with a daily close above $2,380, targeting the previous high at $2,464 and then the $2,500–$2,600 zone over multi-week horizon. Current momentum indicators (RSI 51 on 4h, MACD histogram negative) show weakening but not yet bearish divergence.

Bear Case A sustained downside would trigger if price breaks below the $2,285 support (recent swing low from April 16) and the $2,240 level (daily Supertrend value). This would invalidate the higher low structure and signal a deeper correction toward the $2,100–$2,150 zone (daily EMA20 and cloud support). The 4h chart shows bearish momentum with MACD histogram negative (-4.57), RSI neutral (51), and price below both EMA9 ($2,378) and EMA20 ($2,363). Volume has declined during the pullback, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation.

Most Likely Path Given the confluence of support at $2,300–$2,285 (tested multiple times in April) and the still-bullish daily structure, the most likely path is a consolidation between $2,285 and $2,380 before the next directional move. The exact level that would confirm the dominant direction is a daily close above $2,380 for bullish continuation or below $2,285 for bearish extension.

Trade Setup

• Direction: Neutral
• Confidence: 0.55
• Key Levels: Support at $2,300, $2,285 | Resistance at $2,380, $2,415
• Watch: A daily close above $2,380 would create a long entry opportunity targeting $2,464+. A daily close below $2,285 would create a short entry opportunity targeting $2,150–$2,100.

Risks

• Invalidation: A daily close below $2,240 (daily Supertrend) would collapse the bullish macro thesis and signal a deeper correction.
• Warning: High volatility and conflicting signals between timeframes (daily bullish, 4h bearish) increase risk of false breakouts.