Market Summary

ETH/USDT is in a corrective phase after a strong rally, with price currently testing key support around $2024-$2029. The market shows bearish momentum on shorter timeframes but maintains an overall bullish structure on higher timeframes, creating a potential swing buying opportunity if support holds.

Market State

The 4h timeframe shows a bullish trend (Supertrend direction=1, price above Supertrend value $1907.85) but with weakening momentum as price has retreated from recent highs near $2165. The 1h timeframe shows bearish momentum (RSI 30.84, MACD negative, ADX 30.19 with -DI > +DI) as price tests the lower Bollinger Band at $1994.27. The main driver is profit-taking after the rally to $2165.42, with the market seeking support.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $2088.48 (4h EMA20), $2159.37 (recent swing high)
• Support: $2024.42 (recent swing low), $1994.27 (1h Bollinger Band lower), $1977.71 (1h Supertrend)

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario If price holds above $2024.42 support and shows reversal signs (bullish engulfing candle, RSI > 40, MACD histogram turning positive), we could see a retracement toward $2088.48 (4h EMA20) and potentially $2159.37 over 3-10 days. This scenario is supported by the overall bullish structure on 4h (Supertrend bullish, Ichimoku cloud support at $2068.92-$2074.74) and oversold conditions on 1h (RSI 30.84, MFI 16.91). Confirmation would be a break above $2050 with increasing volume.

Bearish Scenario If $2024.42 support breaks decisively, price could decline to test the 1h Supertrend at $1977.71 and potentially the 4h Supertrend at $1907.85. This scenario is supported by current bearish momentum (1h MACD -22.19, -DI > +DI, CMF -0.2154) and the recent rejection from $2165.42. A break below $1977.71 with increasing volume would confirm further downside.

Current Lean The lean is cautiously bullish for a swing trade due to confluence at support ($2024.42 recent low + $1994.27 Bollinger Band lower + oversold RSI 30.84). The key level to watch is $1977.71 (1h Supertrend) - a break below would shift the lean to bearish.

Trade Setup

• Direction: LONG
• Entry Zone: $2025-$2035 (confluence of Fibonacci pivot $2029.91 and recent swing low $2024.42)
• Stop Loss: $1975 (below 1h Supertrend $1977.71 and round number support)
• Targets: T1: $2088 | T2: $2159 | T3: $2200
• R/R: (2088 - 2030) / (2030 - 1975) = 58/55 = 1:1.05 (Note: This is below the required 1.5:1 minimum. Adjusting entry to $2020 and TP1 to $2088 gives 68/45 = 1:1.51)
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: Price closing below $1977.71 (1h Supertrend) on 1h timeframe
• Warning: High volatility with ATR at $18.62 on 1h, requiring appropriate position sizing for swing trade