Market Summary

Overall market direction is bullish with medium confidence, but overbought conditions on the 1h timeframe warrant caution; the critical level to monitor over the coming days is the 85.00 support.

Market State

Bullish trend is present on both 4h and 1h timeframes, with price above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators, but the 1h RSI at 89.95 indicates overbought conditions that may lead to consolidation or a pullback.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 90.00, 92.00
• Support: 85.00, 84.00

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario If price holds above the 85.00 support and breaks above the 90.00 resistance, it could extend the uptrend targeting 92.00 (recent high) and potentially 95.00 over the next 3-10 days. This is supported by bullish confluence: MACD histogram positive on both timeframes, Supertrend direction bullish, and price above Ichimoku cloud on 1h. Confirmation requires a sustained 4h close above 90.00 with increasing volume.

Bearish Scenario If price fails to hold 85.00 and breaks below, it could retrace to 84.00 (4h EMA20) or lower to 82.00, driven by profit-taking from overbought 1h RSI and weak ADX on 4h (11.99). Bearish signals include high RSI divergence risk and price approaching 4h Bollinger Band upper limit. A 4h close below 85.00 would activate this scenario.

Current Lean Bullish, as price structure shows higher lows and indicators like MACD and ADX Plus DI favor upside, but the overbought 1h RSU suggests a near-term pullback; the lean shifts to bearish if price breaks below 85.00.

Trade Setup

• Direction: LONG
• Entry Zone: 85.00–86.00
• Stop Loss: 83.00 — placed below the 84.00 support and recent 4h swing low near 82.89
• Targets: T1: 90.00 | T2: 92.00 | T3: 95.00
• R/R: 1:1.8 (based on average entry at 85.50, stop at 83.00, first target at 90.00)
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: A 4h candle close below 83.00 would invalidate the bullish thesis
• Warning: Leverage should be managed cautiously due to overbought 1h RSI increasing volatility risk; consider partial entries or waiting for a deeper pullback.