Market Summary

SOL/USDT is in a bearish macro trend with medium confidence, and the critical level to watch is the support at 80.26, which if broken could accelerate the decline over the coming weeks.

Market State

The daily chart shows a sequence of lower highs, indicating a downtrend, and the market is in a decline phase driven by strong bearish momentum as seen in ADX above 50 and minus_di dominating plus_di.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 88.80, 90.85, 92.96
• Support: 80.26, 78.04, 75.63

Scenarios

Bull Case If SOL manages to break above the key resistance at 90.85 with increasing volume and bullish indicator divergences, it could signal a trend reversal, targeting a move back towards 100 over several weeks. However, this is currently opposed by the dominant bearish structure, negative CMF, and price below the Ichimoku cloud.

Bear Case If price fails to hold above 80.26 and breaks lower, the downtrend is likely to continue, with next targets at 78.04 and 75.63 over the coming weeks. This is supported by the high ADX, negative MACD, RSI in oversold territory, and price below key EMAs on the daily timeframe.

Most Likely Path Given the bearish confluence on daily indicators and the lower high structure, the most likely path is further downside towards 80.26, with confirmation on a break below the recent low of 85.48 from the daily candles.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry Zone: 88–90
• Stop Loss: 95 — above the recent high of 94.05 to invalidate the bearish macro thesis
• Targets: T1: 80 | T2: 78 | T3: 76 | T4: 75
• R/R: 1:2.5 (approximate, based on entry at 89, stop at 95, target at 80)
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: A break above 95 would negate the bearish structure and could lead to a reversal.