Market Summary

The market is exhibiting bearish momentum with immediate resistance at 170.2; a break above 171.0 would invalidate the downtrend and shift bias.

Market State

Current trend is bearish as ADX shows minus_di higher than plus_di on both 1h and 15m timeframes, and price is consolidating near the upper Bollinger Band on the 15m, suggesting potential reversal or pullback.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 170.2, 171.2, 172.6
• Support: 168.4, 167.7, 166.7

Scenarios

Bullish Scenario If price breaks above 170.2 with confirming volume spike and bullish indicator shifts such as RSI rising above 50 on the 15m, it could target 171.2 and 172.6. However, this is contradicted by current bearish ADX readings and sell-heavy signal summaries, requiring strong momentum confirmation to be viable.

Bearish Scenario If price fails to hold above 169 and breaks below 168.4, it could decline towards 167.7 and 166.7. This is supported by bearish ADX alignment, negative CMF on the 15m, and consistent sell signals. A confirmation would be a candle close below 168.4 on the 15m timeframe.

Current Lean The data leans bearish due to trend indicator confluence and signal summaries; monitor a break below 168.4 for confirmed downside entry.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry: 169.5 (optimal) / 170.0 (alternative)
• Stop Loss: 171.0 — placed above the key resistance at 170.2 to protect against a breakout
• Targets: T1: 168.4 | T2: 167.7 | T3: 166.7
• R/R: 1:0.73 to T1 (risk 1.5 points, reward 1.1 points), improving with further targets
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: A candle close above 171.0 on the 15m timeframe would negate the bearish setup and indicate potential upward momentum.