Market Summary

TRX/USDT is in a macro downtrend with prices making lower highs and lows, but consolidation near 0.2865 suggests potential for further decline if key support at 0.2683 breaks, which is critical to watch over the coming weeks.

Market State

The daily chart shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish market structure, with the current phase likely in decline or distribution as price trades below key EMAs and ADX shows a strong trend but mixed direction.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.2912, 0.2973
• Support: 0.2683, 0.2762

Scenarios

Bull Case If TRX breaks above 0.2973 with sustained high volume, it could signal a trend reversal, targeting 0.3100 over weeks. However, current indicators like RSI at 40.58 (below 50) and price below EMAs oppose this, and confirmation would require a daily close above 0.3000 with improving momentum indicators such as MACD turning positive.

Bear Case A break below 0.2683 would confirm the downtrend, likely leading to further downside towards 0.2500 over the coming weeks. Indicators such as ADX at 37.85 (strong trend) and bearish EMA alignment support this, but watch for oversold conditions on RSI which could cause temporary bounces.

Most Likely Path Given the bearish structure and confluence from indicators like price below Bollinger Bands middle and negative CMF trends, the most likely path is continued downside pressure, with a break below 0.2683 confirming the dominant direction for multi-week declines.

Trade Setup

• Direction: SHORT
• Entry Zone: 0.2910–0.2970
• Stop Loss: 0.3000 — invalidates if price breaks above major resistance at 0.2973
• Targets: T1: 0.2800 | T2: 0.2700 | T3: 0.2600 | T4: 0.2500
• R/R: 1:3.5
• Confidence: Medium

Risks

• Invalidation: Price closing above 0.3000 on a daily basis would collapse the bearish thesis.
• Warning: Mixed signals from indicators like Supertrend showing bullish direction on daily could lead to false breaks, requiring careful position sizing and monitoring.